Phil Kessel

Attack in Black, an indie rock band from Welland, Ontario, may have penned their breakout song, Young Leaves, about Toronto Maple Leaf fans:

“There’s a scar that in the dark is an empty hole,
Like a thousand stories begging not to go untold,
But that in the light is a hidden dream,
For our shallow lives be appeased,
By nothing more than young leaves.”

You have to go back to Wendel Clark or Rick Vaive to find a young leaf with the gift for the goal as great as that of Phil Kessel.  For too many years Toronto has been terribly short of such young talent and the associated dreams.  The shallow lives of Toronto hockey fans might soon be appeased.

Or maybe not.

Maple Leaf fans are about to hang a great burden on Kessel.  Yes, at the age of 21, he was his own version of Attack in Black, logging 36 goals in just 70 games with the Boston Bruins.  Yes, at the age of 22, he is still growing into his hockey persona.

But Toronto fans need to be wary of their own scars in the dark.

It was once known as the Mahovlich malady.  At the age of 22, Frank Mahovlich netted 48 goals.  In the process he dialled expectations so high that delivering an average of around 30 goals in ensuing seasons was just not good enough.

Not so long ago it was known as the McCabe condition.  On the heels of an all-star season Bryan McCabe was offered a market contract that set him up for failure on home ice.  As his performance reverted to merely good, the jeers cascaded from the upper bowl of the ACC.

Very recently it might have been called Blake’s syndrome.  A career “20 goal scorer”, Jason Blake accepted an offer of US $4 million per season to join the Leafs.  Of course, this was preceded by a career year of 40 goals.  After struggling in his first season with the team, last season all he did was deliver to reasonable expectations, with 25 goals and 38 assists, and provide the Leafs with its most effective offense in the shootout (4 goals for 8 attempts).  This season he is off to a slow start and the fans’ grumbling has begun.

Maple Leaf fans must put Kessel’s history in perspective.

Over his brief career, Phil has already missed 14% of the games he could have played.  He has already started his Leaf career from the sidelines.  He cannot score from the training room.

His increase in scoring in 2008 was mainly due to increased ice time, although he did become more effective on the power play.  Note that Kessel has scored more than half of his career goals in just one season.  His jump in scoring last season was due to a big improvement in shooting percentage.  Snipers tend to run in streaks and this success may not be sustainable.  On the other hand Phil’s shot totals have been creeping up (and he counted 10 shots in his opening game as a Leaf) – a generally more reliable predictor of goal totals.

While even handed his obvious speed has made him very dangerous.  Last season his even handed output was like that of Marion Hossa or Rick Nash.  On the power play he has not excelled.  Think Mikhail Grabovski.

He is not much of a play maker.  Very few NHL players collect more goals than assists.  Hossa and Nash come to mind again.  Not bad company.

Over his career he has been an exceptional shootout performer.  This too has proven to be an unsustainable skill and, in fact, Kessel cooled off last season.

There is not much evidence that Kessel pays attention defensively.  His defensive performance was much better last season but it is likely that resulted from more time in the offensive zone.

Going from first to worst, Phil is likely to get more ice time in Toronto and record more offense as a consequence.  In Boston he had a supporting cast and played for a team on a serious roll.  In Toronto he will have a serious role but he may have a difficult time getting energized.

Barring another injury I think it is safe to project Kessel as a 30 goal, 30 assist player.  But I think that offense will come in streaks.

Toronto fans like to rake their young leaves the moment they change colour.  They need to appreciate the rare and precocious talent that Kessel seems to be.  And give him a chance to become a fully grown Leaf.